How are we doing with "the plan", do we have enough water? Options

[Dave King]

Does anyone have a feel for how we are doing versus the plan for releases from Walter through Labor Day? I notice that the inch of rain that appears on the gage for the past week did nothing to affect the steady decline of the lake surface.

[mikeynj]

I have no special knowledge but you got me curious so I did a little poking around and put together my analysis...
The plan found at
http://www.nap.usace.army.mil/Projects/FEWalter/wwrs.htm
calls for a level of 1365 on July 1, this is supposedly sufficient for WW releases through 8/21.

On 7/1 we ended with 1366.23 so the lake was about a foot above the minimum for the releases..it didn't drop below 1365 till 7/4. So we were a little ahead of the plan there..and that was the dryest period, we have had at least a little rain since then, so I'm sure we are still on target for at least completing releases through 8/21. If we get some rain then we get the additional releases through September, but right now I think those are in peril unless the weather changes. I think the fishermen might have more to worry about, I was on the lehigh Saturday and that water felt awful warm, it can't be good for the trout and it's only going to get warmer for a while still.

Personally I want to see it start raining soon,I want to see a 4000 cfs release this fall, I missed it last year, but that's going to take a LOT of rain..so keep on doing the rain dance people!

Does anyone have a feel for how we are doing versus the plan for releases from Walter through Labor Day? I notice that the inch of rain that appears on the gage for the past week did nothing to affect the steady decline of the lake surface.

[RichB]

The plan is, of course, a bit ambiguous, but:
Through Aug 21 is certain, it probably was always certain (Unless maybe the DRBC declared a Drought Emergency- But they have to go through the preliminary steps Drought Watch then Drought Warning, each for several weeks to get there).

The Water for Aug 22 and Aug 28 is there, unless they mismanage it or reinterpret the rules.

August 29 is marginal, little better than 50-50 with the spotty showers we are getting.

Sept 4 and 5 will not happen as of now. Why? They need to, at least, slow down the decrease in the impoundment level. The only way the impoundment level decrease can slow down is if the inflow to the dam is over 200 CFS. Otherwise, it is 100 CFS over inflow for Fishing release, and 600 CFS (650 in August) For White Water.

The fishermen need to stop spending most of there time Trying to take water from us, and start concentrating on getting funding to build a new tower so they can get the coldest water out in July and Early August, instead of May and early June. (See the Lehigh Coldwater Fish Alliance site - they are fighting to get not 50%, but 60% of the water stored, when in actuality they get 65% to 70% in a dry summer)

Actually the best thing for both us and fisherman would be to get with Weatherly’s plan for Hydroelectric. Maybe a 1400 foot impoundment would be no less safe than 1370 if it meant 80 GigaWatt hours of Electricity per annum.

[RichB]

I am slightly more pessimistic than when I posted last week.

Essentially, there are 8 levels or events to this years plan

event 1 Whitewater thru 8-21 and Fish 100 thru 7-25 & 50 thru 9-10
event 2 Whitewater thru 8-22 & 8-28 and Fish 100 thru 8-6 & 50 thru 9-10
event 3 Whitewater thru 8-29 and Fish 100 thru 8-17 & 50 thru 9-10
event 4 Whitewater thru 9-4 and Fish 100 thru 8-24 & 50 thru 9-10
event 5 Whitewater thru 9-5 and Fish 100 thru 8-30 & 50 thru 9-13
event 6 Whitewater thru 9-5 and Fish 100 thru 8-30 & 50 thru 10-17
event 7 Whitewater thru 9-5 and Fish 100 thru 10-17
event 8 Whitewater Dump 9-17

(Whitewater means a release of 550 to 650 above inflow up to 800 CFS. Fish means a supplement for the fisherman of 100 or 50 CFS above inflow – up to 300 CFS. If anyone interprets the ACoE presentation in another way, please post the difference)

Event 1 was pretty much guaranteed when the impoundment reached 1370 in April and was still 1365 on July 1.

Event 2 is not quite guaranteed, we need (as of 7/27) about 200 DFS. Maybe one day of rain sufficient to raise inflow to a little over 300 CFS. However I think ACoE will produce that additional storage by “short changing” us about 10-20 CFS each release thru 8-22 and the Fishermen by 3-5 CFS each day.

Event 3 will require another 750 DFS. No way the Aug 29 release happens without at least one significant rain event, at least an inch in one day.

The September 4 & 5 will each require another 1 inch rain for each (2 inches in one day might provide enough each for Aug 29, Sept 4, Sept 5.)

A little more luck with heavy thunderstorms hitting the upper watershed, instead of Scranton or Allentown could do it.

But the Sep 17 Dump will not occur unless the weather pattern changes radically, or we get a tropical storm.

[rebjsw5559]

I am slightly more pessimistic than when I posted last week.

Essentially, there are 8 levels or events to this years plan

event 1 Whitewater thru 8-21 and Fish 100 thru 7-25 & 50 thru 9-10
event 2 Whitewater thru 8-22 & 8-28 and Fish 100 thru 8-6 & 50 thru 9-10
event 3 Whitewater thru 8-29 and Fish 100 thru 8-17 & 50 thru 9-10
event 4 Whitewater thru 9-4 and Fish 100 thru 8-24 & 50 thru 9-10
event 5 Whitewater thru 9-5 and Fish 100 thru 8-30 & 50 thru 9-13
event 6 Whitewater thru 9-5 and Fish 100 thru 8-30 & 50 thru 10-17
event 7 Whitewater thru 9-5 and Fish 100 thru 10-17
event 8 Whitewater Dump 9-17

(Whitewater means a release of 550 to 650 above inflow up to 800 CFS. Fish means a supplement for the fisherman of 100 or 50 CFS above inflow – up to 300 CFS. If anyone interprets the ACoE presentation in another way, please post the difference)

Event 1 was pretty much guaranteed when the impoundment reached 1370 in April and was still 1365 on July 1.

Event 2 is not quite guaranteed, we need (as of 7/27) about 200 DFS. Maybe one day of rain sufficient to raise inflow to a little over 300 CFS. However I think ACoE will produce that additional storage by “short changing” us about 10-20 CFS each release thru 8-22 and the Fishermen by 3-5 CFS each day.

Event 3 will require another 750 DFS. No way the Aug 29 release happens without at least one significant rain event, at least an inch in one day.

The September 4 & 5 will each require another 1 inch rain for each (2 inches in one day might provide enough each for Aug 29, Sept 4, Sept 5.)

A little more luck with heavy thunderstorms hitting the upper watershed, instead of Scranton or Allentown could do it.

But the Sep 17 Dump will not occur unless the weather pattern changes radically, or we get a tropical storm.

[rebjsw5559]

I'm not too sure there will be ANY releases after August 21st. The problems with rain events has been they have either not hit the watershed areas that feed the dam which is apparent when you watch the inflow charts. They have hardly moved, except to continue to edge downward, even after some of hte storms have passed thru the area. The ground is just too dry and the vegatation too thick that most any rain that hits the ground gets sucked up and does nothing for the level above the dam.

So without some significant rain we may be out of luck on getting any releases of any amounts after the 21st of Aug. So better get out there while you can.

[RichB]

My pessimism increases.

Right now, the water for the 8-28 release is gone. As of 8/6 AM, we need to accumulate an additional 187 DSF for that event to happen. (A DSF is 86,400 Cu Ft, the number of seconds in a day). When the release ended Sunday 8/1, the amount need to be accumulated was about 110 DSF. That seemed likely because during July, ACoE had been supplementing the outflow for fish purposes by about 95-97 CFS instead of 100 and the white water releases were 25-50 CFS less than the plan indicated. Continuing that policy would have given us the water to guarantee the 8-28 release, provided the Corps switched to a 50 CFS fish supplement Sunday 8-8, as scheduled. But this week, ACoE switched the fish supplement to 110-115 CFS. Thus that 110 Deficit has turned into 187.

Will the 8-22 release happen? Well, the water is there, again provided that when the Sunday 8-8 release ends, the release becomes Outflow = Inflow + 50. (Technically they should do that between the Saturday and Sunday releases, but I would not fault them for “wasting” 25 DSF). However, since ACoE shows the 8/22 and 8/28 releases as one “event” they could decide to just cancel them, and give the water to the fishermen. They already have given them the 12 days of 100CFS from “event 1”. Well, we should know early next week.

I tried to figure why ACoE combined the 8/22 and 8/28 releases into one event, giving us eight instead of nine separate events (each combined with 6 days of the fishing release going from 50 to 100 CFS. This could have been there reasoning: On July 1 the impoundment either stands at 1365 feet, which would have been had we a dry June; that might have resulted in some whitewater cancellations during that Month. Or on July 1, because a wet June, it might have stood at 1370. Actually there is a third likely hood, that it was at 1370 right before the June 26-27 releases; in which case the impoundment would have stood 1368-1369 on July 1. The first occurrence would have guaranteed the schedule only thru the 8-21 release, and the accompanying fishing releases. The third occurrence would have, pretty much guaranteed thru 8-28. A full 1370 likely guarantees thru 8-29, “event 3”.

But this year the impoundment was in between, about 1366.5 on July 1, thus we were “guaranteed” thru 8-22, “event 1 ½”. If the ACoE uses the same basic formula next year, hopefully they will divide “event 2” into two parts.

Note. It took me a long time to model how this year’s event would work, at various inflows. Eventually, I came up with an Excel spreadsheet that shows how it would have worked under varying conditions, and how it actually is working. If anyone is interested in getting a copy, with explanation, just let me know at RichBolden@aol.com.

[rebjsw5559]

See my message below asking the ACE public affairs office about WW releases on the Lehigh going forward of the Aug 21st date. And below that the answer. In short if we don't get any significant rain looks like no releases after the 21st.

RB

___________________________________________________________



From: Rick & Jill <rebjsw@epix.net>
To: Voigt, Edward C NAP
Sent: Sun Aug 08 04:59:31 2010
Subject: Dam Releases going forward of Aug 21


Ed,

Could you shed some light on dam releases going forward of the Aug 21st
date. Do you know at this point if they will happen? Any info would be
helpful in planning club trips beyond that date.

Thank you,
Rick Brown
Canoe Club Of Greater Harrisburg

___________________________________________________________


-----Original Message-----
From: Voigt, Edward C NAP
Sent: Sunday, August 08, 2010 8:00 AM
To: Rochette, Stephen NAP
Subject: Fw: Dam Releases going forward of Aug 21

Message sent via my BlackBerry Wireless Device


___________________________________________________________




Sir,

I spoke with our dam tender and he said at this time, the last White Water
release will be Aug. 21st. We have enough water to complete the 14th, 15th
and the 21st. If we have some precipitation we may be able to add releases as
storage becomes available. We have enough water to continue the fisheries
releases of 50 + inflow until Sept. 10th.

Respectfully,
Steve Rochette
Public Affairs Specialist
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Philadelphia District
215-656-6432

Philadelphia District: http://www.nap.usace.army.mil/index.htm
Blue Marsh on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/bluemarshlake
Francis E. Walter Dam on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/fewalterdam
Philadelphia District on FlickR:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/philadelphiausace

[RichB]

If the ACoE were to follow the plan exactly as proscribed, i.e. inflow + 50 CFS from now until the late evening of Sept 10 except for 12 hours of inflow + 650 CFS on Aug 14,15,21, there will be about 400 DFS remaining above standard pool of 906. The impoundment level will be about 1308 feet in elevation.

That 400 DFS is more than enough to produce a 650+ release on 8-22. (note that that the fishermen already received their additional 50 for 7-26 to 8-6). What ACoE could do with that 400 DFS is supplement the outflow by an addition 160-200 CFS for 10-12 hours on Aug 22,28,29 & Sep 4,5. The reason that makes sense is that the outfitters already have 1000's booked for float trips on those days, tentatively scheduled to originate From Glen Onoko or the Train Station in Thorpe. Add to that the fact that possibly half the people booked for whitewater those days, when informed what is up, will opt for a float trip rather than for a (lack of) rain check for next season. Putting on 4000 people for a float trip at Dunbars would indeed be ugly and overcrowded. We like to make that <4.5 mile trip take >3.0 hours. So you could easily have 2000 people on that short distance between Noon and 4:00PM. It would make the Lehigh look like that Ganges during an important religous festival. (no ethnic or religous slurs intended). 450 CFS at Lehighton is about the minimum to make put ins at the train station practical.

So, anyway, at the end of the season, I would like to account for all 9700 DFS with which we began July 1. Just so that when the fishermen say they are getting only 50% of the water, and demand 60%, we can point out that they will have gotten 65-70%.

Like I say, if anyone wants a look at the spreadsheet that makes this clear, contact me at RichBolden@aol.com

[rebjsw5559]

Release is on for Aug 22 now.

__________________________________

District has announced that it will hold a whitewater release on Aug. 22 from
the Francis E. Walter Dam.

The Corps updated the schedule on Aug. 13, stating whitewater releases after
Aug. 21 would be only be made if additional water storage was accumulated;
however weekend rainfall has made the release possible.

The Aug. 22 whitewater release will be in the range of 650-750 cubic-feet per
second of water. This recreation season, the Francis E. Walter Dam has
already completed 17 whitewater releases. For more updates on the plan, visit
the Corps web site or Facebook fan page:

http://www.nap.usace.army.mil
http://www.facebook.com/fewalterdam

-30-




Steve Rochette
Public Affairs Specialist
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Philadelphia District
215-656-6432

Philadelphia District: http://www.nap.usace.army.mil/index.htm
Blue Marsh on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/bluemarshlake
Francis E. Walter Dam on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/fewalterdam
Philadelphia District on FlickR:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/philadelphiausace



**********************************************************************
The pa-ww mailing list is hosted by www.rockandwater.net,
and is a public service offered to the paddling community.

To unsubscribe or change delivery options:
Via email: pa-ww-request@rockandwater.net
Via web: http://www.rockandwater.net/mailman/listinfo/pa-ww

[rebjsw5559]

What are the chances that nearly 3 inches of rain in the FEW res. will ensure a release next weekend ?
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/pa/nwis/uv/?site...Ameter_cd=00045

Hopefully if managed correctly that should be enough to have another release weekend.

[RichB]

Saturday will happen.

The part of the plan that deals with water for Sunday, Aug 29 also consigns water to incrementing the fishing support from 50 to 100 CFS for the period Aug 7-17, which, of course, is in the past. I would assume they will now, for at least 11 days, keep the outflow at 300 CFS as inflow drops to the 250-200 CFS range; then Inflow + 100 as it drops below 200. Everything is muddled, but it seems very, very likely to happen 8-29.

More rain is needed for Labor day weekend to happen.

For September 17 Dump day to guaranteed (now), we wuould still need the dam level to reach near 1370. Maybe 1350 storage Labor Day.